The 2025 FIBA Asia Cup is a few days away, but between Kai Sotto not playing and Gilas Pilipinas’s hot and cold send-off game versus the Macau Black Bears, it’s looking like Justin Brownlee and company will need nothing short of a miracle to net a medal of any color—let alone that coveted gold.
Then again, the beauty of hoops is that the games still need to be played, and crazier things have certainly happened. But Gilas will need to give themselves a chance for Lady Luck to swing their way and make their 2025 FIBA Asia Cup stint memorable for the right reasons.
So, what exactly does Gilas need to do if they want a fighting shot at claiming a podium finish in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the site of this year’s tournament?
Sweeping the Classification Phase Is Key to a 2025 FIBA Asia Cup Medal
It might be a gargantuan task, but believe it or not, Gilas can do it. They’ve already beaten Chinese Taipei and New Zealand in the qualifiers, and Iraq for all its gains in hoops, likely isn’t on Gilas Pilipinas’ level just yet.
But why a sweep?
Sweeping this round means Gilas gets the top seed in Group D—and the automatic quarterfinals slot that comes with it. That will allow the national team to avoid potential complications from playing in the win-or-go-home round 1 of the knockout stage. Perhaps more important, finishing atop Group D will place the Philippines in the bracket opposite Australia, which is widely regarded as the heavy favorite to win gold in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup.
Should Gilas sweep the classification phase, the road to a podium might look like this: either South Korea or Qatar in the quarters, either of China, South Korea, or Lebanon in the semis, and possibly Australia in the final. A second seed would mean a knockout match with either Syria or Guam, a quarters date with China most likely, and then a rematch with New Zealand in the semis.
Between the two roads, that first one appears to be the more feasible one for Gilas.
But again, crazier things have happened in basketball, and one upset in the classification phase could blow up the overall seedings and bracket matchups. Still, if history and current form hold true, the best path to a medal still begins by sweeping the elimination round.
Can Gilas Do It?
Of course they can!
But yes, it will be very, very difficult. A lot of things will have to go right if Gilas is to beat Chinese Taipei, New Zealand, and Iraq in successive days. Three things, in particular, need to happen:
D Up from Opening Whistle to the Final Buzzer
Chinese Taipei and New Zealand (and other elite teams moving forward) boast potent offense built on precise execution and lights-out shooting. In short, they’re the kind of teams that make sloppy, undisciplined defense pay most of the time. Gilas will have to play good, hard-nosed defense right from the start, limit open shots, maybe force some turnovers, and not let up at all. Defending the point of attack will be crucial in this case, and that means Scottie Thompson, Chris Newsome, CJay Perez, and even Dwight Ramos will have to be on-point on defense.
Supporting Cast Must Step Up
Justin Brownlee already showed he still has some gas left even at 37, but he’ll be a marked man in Jeddah. He won’t be surprising any team in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup, and he’ll surely be defended by the other teams’ best defensive players. He might even attract double-teams from time to time. This puts the onus on the other guys—Ramos, AJ Edu, Kevin Quiambao, and Carl Tamayo, among others—to step up and alternately benefit from the attention Brownlee will get and relieve some of the offensive load on his shoulders. Quiambao, fresh from his training in the US, and Tamayo, coming off a smashing stint in the Japan B.League, could be Gilas’ X-factors in this regard—that is, if Tim Cone actually lets them play.
Make Threes
This cannot be emphasized enough: Three-point shooting will be key in every game and for every team. That’s hoops in the modern day, and it will shape the way this 2025 FIBA Asia Cup unfolds. Needless to say, Gilas Pilipinas will need to let it fly from deep—and hopefully make more than they miss. Unfortunately, Gilas’ only dead-eye shooter from range is Brownlee, and he will again be a marked man all tournament long. That is, unless Quiambao’s smoother stroke is for real and the TNT Tropang 5G version of Calving Oftana shows up.
The Final Verdict
So, can Gilas Pilipinas win a medal in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup?
The heart says yes, the mind says no. So many things need to fall into place for the national team to make it all the way to the semis, where they will at least have that chance to play for a medal. On the opposite side of the fence, one thing goes wrong and it might be all she wrote for Gilas.
In other words, Justin Brownlee and company need to play perfect in Jeddah. Anything less and that podium finish in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup will be washed away.
