The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers will now face in the biggest stage to lead their respective cities to their first-ever championship. However, it wouldn’t be an easy route for the Pacers, but certainly won’t be a quick road for the Thunder in what could be a grueling and dreadful 2025 NBA Finals.
But, before the Finals kick off on Friday in Oklahoma, let’s take a look at how Indiana would possibly fare against the MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the No.1 team in the NBA.
The Thunder is Unlike Every Playoff Opponent the Pacers Had Faced
Despite them going off in the East in the past month, the Indiana Pacers have yet to face a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In context, OKC has the best defense in the league, not just on paper. According to an advanced analytics stat from the NBA, the Thunder led the league in steals, deflections, and loose balls. Moreover, they’re the best when it comes to forcing turnovers.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are pretty well-rounded, but obviously not on the Thunder’s level in terms of defense. They may have beaten the Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks, but none of those matchups deemed their opponents as the better defensive team.
In the Finals, Indiana should expect to receive the kind of treatment the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, and the Minnesota Timberwolves experienced from the hands of Oklahoma—their stingy and suffocating defense.
Indiana may boast their excellent three-point shooting, but OKC could just quickly adjust and throw a lot of bodies to disrupt Tyrese Haliburton’s exceptional passes. They can switch between Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Lu Dort, and Alex Caruso as their main guys on the perimeter, while Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein man the paint. We saw how they smothered Anthony Edwards in the Western Conference Finals and how
Despite being an above average defender, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably the worst defender in the Thunder’s starting lineup (which isn’t a bad thing), and the newly named MVP will surely go ballistic on offense.
The Pacers do have tons of options to score, like Eastern Conference Finals MVP Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Benedict Mathurin, and Myles Turner, but the Thunder have just as much or even more they can pull from their arsenal.
OKC’s 2-0 record against the Pacers in the 2024-2025 regular season may just well be a preview of the Finals, but then again, the playoffs are different and Indiana has proven that their underdog status isn’t something to be messed with.
The Biggest X-Factors
Oklahoma is the number one team in the NBA for a reason. They’re unparalleled defense-wise, and they’re a top-tier offensive team. They have the current MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and an All-Star, All-NBA, and All-Defensive guard in Jalen Williams. However, their biggest x-factor so far in the playoffs is none other than Chet Holmgren.
Holmgren was on pace to become an All-Star this year if it weren’t for his injuries. In the postseason, the 7-foot-1 big man was just as good. He played well against Nikola Jokic in the semifinals, which is something to be very proud of. In the upcoming NBA Finals, the three-point shooting center is expected to bring the best out of Turner or Siakam. Either way, if Holmgren dominates, it’ll give OKC a huge advantage. However, if the crumbles, then it’s going to be a bad spell for the champion favorites.
On the other hand, the Pacers’ offense will eventually be stunned. This is where Siakam must show his championship pedigree in action. Indiana loves shooting threes from the corner as they shot 46.9% from that field, a huge boost compared to their 40.6% average in the regular season. Fortunately, no other team in the league allows more corner threes than the Thunder. They won’t get by OKC defenders by driving directly to the basket or even trying to outpace the Western champs, because they’ll run out of gas against the Thunder, who pride themselves as the team with the fastest pace in the league.
Making their three-point shots from the corner and maybe Siakam silently putting up numbers in the post could just be the way for the Pacers to at least keep the game close.
Expert Picks: OKC Beats Indiana and Wins First Ring
Regardless of how sensational the Indiana Pacers have been in the playoffs, it’s still obvious that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the better team. ESPN’s expert analysts pick OKC to win the Finals—14 voted for Oklahoma, and only 1 voted for Indiana.
Looking at every aspect of the game, the Thunder should control this series. But, then again, didn’t the Pacers overcome every hurdle since the first round? They weren’t even favored to come out of the East, let alone win the Finals. Stats and records have proven to be moot in the postseason. The Knicks were winless against the Celtics in the regular season, but they just casually beat them in the semifinals, 4-2, after going up 3-1.
It’s going to be either one heck of a matchup or a disastrous sweep.
