The past two seasons have been highly encouraging for the young Rockets squad. From finishing near the bottom of the league in 2022–23, they rapidly transformed into a powerhouse and secured second place in a very competitive Western Conference last year. The franchise then made a big statement this summer, acquiring 2x Finals MVP and 15x NBA All-Star Kevin Durant in a blockbuster trade that instantly positioned them among the top favorites to win it all.
But those championship hopes took a major hit when veteran point guard Fred VanVleet suffered a season-ending ACL injury, leading many to wonder if their season is really over? Here’s a closer look at where his impact has been most felt, and what his loss could mean moving forward.
THREE-POINT SHOOTING
Last season, Vanvleet was the Rockets’ second-best three-point shooter, averaging nearly 3 made threes per game on 34.5% shooting. In the playoffs, he stepped up his performance even more, hitting almost 4 threes per game at an impressive 43.5% rate. The Rockets were already one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, ranking 22nd in total threes made and 21st in three-point percentage last season. With their top three shooters now gone, outside shooting could become an even bigger concern. Durant, one of the NBA’s most efficient scorers, should help ease that issue—he ranked 11th last season in three-point percentage among players who made at least 82 threes in 82 team games. Smith Jr. will be expected to step up, having ranked fourth on the team last season with 1.7 threes made per game. Reed Sheppard should also see a larger role; he closed the regular season on a hot streak, knocking down 15 of his 28 attempts.
RUNNING THE OFFENSE
Last season, the Rockets ranked just 28th in the league with 23.3 assists per game. Brooks, Green, and VanVleet combined for 10.7 of those. The team’s ball movement is also at its best when VanVleet is on the court, both in the regular season and the playoffs, but it noticeably dips when he’s on the bench. The Rockets also lack depth in the guard position. Holiday and Sheppard are the only point guards in the team but it remains to be seen if they’re capable of running the floor consistently.
That said, creating offense will become a bigger problem for a team that also finished last season just 13th in points per game and 12th in offensive rating. Thompson should step in for Vanvleet, and while he’s primarily used as a wing, he’s shown the ability to make plays—averaging 3.8 assists and posting four double-digit assist games last year. Sengun is also a capable playmaker for his position, averaging nearly 5 assists per game over the past two seasons. Even Kevin Durant can shoulder some of the load; with the Suns last year, he ranked as their third-best facilitator.
LIMITED FIREPOWER
In their series against the Warriors, the Rockets had a difficult time scoring. VanVleet took the matter into his own hands, averaging 22.8 points while shooting 57.3% from three over the last five games and making critical shots when they needed them most. He was especially instrumental in Game 6, nearly recording a 30-point triple-double.
Losing him further limits an already unreliable offense. The Rockets’ core is still inexperienced, and their offensive game remains incomplete. Both Sengun and Thompson are poor three-point shooters, while Smith Jr. struggled with consistency last year. Although Durant should be a more reliable primary scoring option than Green, he can’t do everything alone. This is why Eason needs to step up offensively. While he made more of an impact on defense early last year, he has shown flashes of scoring ability. In March, for example, he averaged 14.2 points on 50.6% shooting from the field and 35.7% from three.
Despite all of that, the Rockets remain one of the league’s best defensive teams, which should keep them firmly in the playoff picture. But without VanVleet, they lack stability. Durant provides championship pedigree, yet for Houston to truly win it all, their young core must mature quickly.
