Gilas Pilipinas took care of business in the first window of their FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers, dispatching Guam twice to open with back-to-back victories. With the Guam games out of the way, acid tests now await the national team as they take on Australia and New Zealand early next year. That being the backdrop, let’s take a look at how Gilas Pilipinas can get to the FIBA World Cup to be held in 2027 in Qatar:
Just Get to the Next Round First
The FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers are divided into two rounds, with the first beginning with a series of games bridging November and December. In all, 16 teams are vying for seven FIBA World Cup slots, and these squads are grouped into four groups of four teams each. Group A consists of the Philippines, New Zealand, Australia, and Guam. Group B is made up of Japan, South Korea, China, and Chinese Taipei. Jordan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria comprise Group C, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Lebanon, and India make up Group D.
Each team in each group will play the other three teams twice in a home-and-away format over the course of two windows. At the end of these first two windows, the top three teams will advance to the second round and form a new group with the top three finishers of another group. In these qualifiers, the survivors of Group A, where Gilas belongs, will form a new group—Group E—by merging with the survivors of Group C. The top three finishers in Group B, on the other hand, will combine with the top three finishers in Group D to form Group F.
The top three finishers in each of Group E and Group F, along with the best fourth-place team, will clinch spots in the 2027 FIBA World Cup. Qatar, being the host nation, is already assured of a slot.
Needless to say, Gilas Pilipinas needs to make it to the second round. Normally, that would be a Herculean task with dates against powerhouses New Zealand and Australia. But with Guam in the mix, there’s a good chance the Philippines would sneak into the second round even if it goes 0-4 against Oceania’s best—that is, unless Guam pulls off a shocker and manages to win big twice against either Australia and/or New Zealand. But that’s probably not happening.
Take Over in the Second Round
Assuming Gilas winds up with a 2-4 record with two losses each to Australia and New Zealand, all hope isn’t lost at all—even if the win-loss records carry over to the second round. But the national team will need to be perfect against the survivors of Group C, which will likely be Jordan, Iran, and Syria/Iraq. The best-case scenario for Gilas in this case is a sweep of the Jordanians, Iranians, and Syrians/Iraqis to finish at 8-4.
Gilas Pilipinas, of course, has beaten these Middle Eastern squads before and is perfectly capable of doing so again. Realistically, though, a sweep of Jordan and Iran seems far-fetched given the improvements of both teams recently. Even so, the goal should be to win enough games to either secure a third-place finish—assuming Australia and New Zealand finish one and two in Group E—or be the best fourth-place team after all is said and done.
A Tough Road Ahead for Gilas Pilipinas
While the scenarios outlined above are somewhat pessimistic, it doesn’t mean Gilas Pilipinas can’t conjure some magic, especially with centerpiece Kai Sotto nearing a return to action—possibly against Australia and New Zealand in February. A sweep of Oceania’s finest would be amazing, and a split would be just as great. Even going 1-3 in four games against Australia and New Zealand would be huge for Gilas Pilipinas’ chances of making it to the 2027 FIBA World Cup.
Regardless, what is certain in all this is that Gilas Pilipinas is facing a tough road ahead if they want to make the 2027 FIBA World Cup—the country’s fourth consecutive, if ever. But, if it’s any consolation, it isn’t entirely mission impossible.
Video Credit: FIBA
