The PBA Commissioner’s Cup elimination round is down to its third to the last play date later today at the Ninoy Aquino Stadium, with the Meralco Bolts going up against the Terrafirma Dyip, followed by the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters taking on the Titan Ultra Giant Risers. Crucially, both of these games matter as they will surely affect the seedings of the top four teams, which for now are the NLEX Road Warriors, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, Rain or Shine, and Meralco.
Here’s the top side of the standings so far:
With that being said, let’s take a look at the potential fates of these four teams with the eliminations about to draw to a close:
NLEX Road Warriors: No. 1 No Matter What
At 10-2, NLEX is the top seed heading into the quarterfinals. No complications here.
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel: As High as No. 2, as Low as No. 4
How Ginebra Can Go No. 2: Beat the TNT Tropang 5G on Sunday and hope that Meralco goes 1-1 in its last two games in the elims against Terrafirma and the Magnolia Hotshots.
To simplify things, the Barangay needs to avoid any three-team tie with Rain or Shine and Meralco, whether at 9-3 or at 8-4. In this case, Meralco will get the second seed by virtue of a higher quotient, with Ginebra finishing third, and Rain or Shine getting fourth. A tie with the Elasto Painters, meanwhile, will favor the crowd darlings because of the winner-over-the-other rule (Ginebra beat Rain or Shine), while a tie with the Bolts would work in Meralco’s favor because of, again, the winner-over-the-other rule (Meralco dominated Ginebra).
Worst-Case Scenarios: Ginebra loses to TNT to fall to 8-4, Rain or Shine beats the Titan Ultra Giant Risers to improve to 9-3, and Meralco wins its remaining games to go to 9-3. This leaves Ginebra as the fourth seed. Ginebra finishes at No. 4, too, if it loses to TNT and Meralco goes 1-1 in its remaining games, as this scenario will result in the Gin Kings and Bolts ending up tied at 8-4.
Rain or Shine Elasto Painters: As High as No. 2, as Low as No. 4
How Rain or Shine Can Go No. 2: Beat Titan Ultra and hope that Ginebra loses to TNT and Meralco either loses its remaining games or goes 1-1.
The most direct route to the second seed for the Elasto Painters is a win over Titan and losses for both Ginebra and Meralco. That will leave Rain or Shine as the only other team at 9-3. Even if Meralco goes 1-1, Yeng Guiao’s squad will still nab the second seed because it beat the Bolts.
Worst-Case Scenarios: Rain or Shine ends up in a three-team tie with Meralco and Ginebra either at 9-3 or 8-4. In both cases, the Elasto Painters end up at No. 4 due to an inferior quotient. Rain or Shine also ends up at No. 4 if it winds up tied with Meralco at 8-4, assuming Ginebra goes to 9-3.
Meralco Bolts: As High as No. 2, as Low as Bottom Four
How Meralco Can Go No. 2: Beat Terrafirma and Magnolia and hope Ginebra and Rain or Shine lose. Alternatively, Meralco must win one of its remaining two games and hope for a three-way tie with the Gin Kings and Elasto Painters.
The Bolts are under the gun later tonight because their top-four standing is at stake when they play Terrafirma. Win it and they’re assured of a win-once edge. Lose and they face a virtual must-win against Magnolia for that fourth seed.
Worst-Case Scenario: Meralco could still wind up at the bottom four, which would happen if it loses its two remaining games in the elimination round. In this scenario, Meralco could end up at 7-5 with a bunch of other teams, with the fourth seed to be determined via quotient.
