Numbers rarely lie. That’s especially true in basketball, where game stats generally tell the story of how a particular matchup played out. In other words, we can tell from the numbers how one team won and why the other lost. And, in most cases, these same numbers can give us an idea of how the next game could unfold—particularly when the same two teams are involved, as in the case of the NLEX Road Warriors and the TNT Tropang 5G.
NLEX and TNT will face each other again on Saturday with a spot in the semis at stake. This comes after the Tropang 5G hacked out a pulsating 96-93 victory on Wednesday. That being the case, what did the numbers tell us about that game? And how could they influence the teams’ do-or-die showdown for a spot in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup semis?
26-for-33 to 12-for-18
Among the more notable trends that defined Game 1 of this bracket was the number of times the Tropa got to the line. At one point, TNT already had 20 free throw attempts while NLEX had none. For the game, the Tropang 5G went 26-for-33 from the charity stripe, with Bol Bol alone finishing 11-for-15. The Road Warriors, on the other hand, went 12-for-18. This free throw disparity accounted for a 14-point difference that favored TNT, and it will likely be the same on Saturday given how often Bol draws fouls in his forays to the basket. Needless to say, NLEX needs to play good defense without fouling.
20 to 11
Another area TNT won convincingly on Wednesday was the turnover battle, as the Tropa coughed the ball up just 11 times while forcing the Road Warriors to commit 20. This turnover difference, in turn, gave TNT a 22-8 advantage in turnover points. This is par for the course for the Tropang 5G, who have been among the league’s premier defenses over the past few conferences. Expect that defense to be even more aggressive as the Tropa go for the proverbial kill. It’s on NLEX to protect the ball better.
80 to 61
TNT’s starters outplayed NLEX’s, and the difference in points scored—80-61—tells the story. Bol’s 34 led the way, and with his size and skill set, there’s probably little NLEX can do to keep him from getting his numbers. The difference this time was that the South Sudanese big got help, with Calvin Oftana and RR Pogoy combining for 34. Rey Nambatac even added 7.
NLEX’s starting five, in contrast, was rather quiet, in part because Robert Bolick only had 15 as he was hounded by foul trouble. Cady Lalanne, meanwhile, was limited to 17, while Schonny Winston managed just 10. A bounce back from these three might be in order—and it could be huge for the Road Warriors.
8-23 to 15-31
One area where NLEX got the better of TNT was in three-point shooting, with the Road Warriors going 15-for-31 for a blistering 48.4% clip. The Tropa, on the other hand, continued their struggles from distance, making just 8 of their 23 long balls. This difference reinforces NLEX’s advantage in shooting percentages, and it could be a point of attack again on Saturday. TNT, meanwhile, will be hoping to break out of its conference-long shooting slump to finish the job.
(1) NLEX vs. (8) TNT
TNT and NLEX will clash again on Saturday at the Ynares Center in Antipolo, with the winner advancing to the semis. Game time is set for 7:30 p.m.
