For the longest time this year, it looked like three-time defending F1 World Champion Max Verstappen would have a cakewalk to a fourth consecutive title. But now, with four races to go before this F1 season draws to a close, that championship appears to be playing hard to get for the 27-year-old Red Bull ace.
That’s mostly due to McLaren’s Lando Norris, who has made a spirited run of late, winning five of the last eight Grand Prix in the second half of the season. Norris’s late-season charge has seen him slash Verstappen’s once-commanding lead to just 47 points with four races—with two of them being sprints—remaining.
Math Says Lando Norris Can Complete His Comeback
This second-half push, believe it or not, means Norris can still win the F1 World Championship despite Verstappen’s dominant first half of the season, where he won 7 of 12 races—including four of the season’s first five Grands Prix. At least, that is what the math is saying.
With 120 points still up for grabs in Brazil (Nov. 1–3), Las Vegas (Nov. 22–24), Qatar (Nov. 29–Dec.1), and Abu Dhabi (Dec. 6–8), it is still mathematically possible for Norris to clear the 47 points he needs to overtake Verstappen for the overall title. The math is pretty cut and dry, too, as to what Norris must do in the next four races: outscore Verstappen by at least 12 points in each event.
Incidentally, F1’s scoring system—25 points for the winner, 18 for the second placer, and 15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 down the line—means Norris does have a chance. Four wins and four fourth-place finishes from Verstappen, for instance, will give Norris the title, as will any permutation where the McLaren standout is at least 12 points clear of his Red Bull rival.
Probability Says Lando Norris Is a Little Too Late
Putting it simply, Norris winning it all will take nothing short of a miracle. Norris, for all the ground he has gained, has won only three Grands Prix this season, making it unlikely that he will sweep the last four of the year. He will also need to be at least three positions higher than Verstappen in every race—something that has happened just thrice this season (in Monaco, Italy, and Mexico).
The two sprints could be a potential trump card for Norris, where he can earn an extra eight points for every win. But even that seems unlikely as Verstappen has won all four sprints this season—and 11 for his career, which is the most all-time in F1 history. In contrast, Norris has won only two sprints in his career and none this season.
In other words, Norris’s chances of completing his furious comeback are both in his hands and partly out of his, as he can only hope that he keeps his fine form up until the end while Verstappen performs poorly. History suggests that might be possible, however infinitesimal the chances are, with the latter stumbling to a sixth-, fifth-, and sixth-place finish in the last three Grands Prix.
World Constructors’ Championship Is Still a Toss-Up
Aside from Norris’ ambitious bid to do something extraordinary to conclude the year, also worth keeping tabs on is the race for the World Constructors’ Championship, which may very well be decided in the last Grand Prix of the season. McLaren, the current leader, Ferrari, and Red Bull are all within striking distance from one another, and either one is one final push away from securing the coveted team title.
Amidst all this late-season drama, the ultimate winners are no doubt the fans, who better brace themselves for a wild, exciting conclusion to the 2024 F1 season.
