The elimination round of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup is now over, and if the playoffs are anything quite like the elims, then fans can expect even more thrilling action. The unexpected might be in play, too, as this tournament has shaped up to be among the closest in recent years, with the final eight bunched up so close together after 156 games in all.
Amidst that backdrop, we convened the Rebanse staff—John Michael Agustin, Bon Maddagan, Brian Callada, and Martin Bolima—and asked them four burning questions heading into the postseason.
1. Who are the favorites to win it all?
John: Talk ‘N Text … because … RHJ [Rondae Hollis-Jefferson].
Bon: TNT and Ginebra. TNT is fresh off a championship, while Eastern has made it clear that they don’t want to face Ginebra
Brian: TNT and Ginebra. There’s no doubt that RHJ can carry his team to a championship even when there’s a huge height disadvantage this Commissioner’s Cup. TNT have also won multiple games after starting the conference 0-2 and have shown that they can dominate. Ginebra has not won the championship since 2022, but I feel like with the addition of Troy Rosario and the last few “great” years of Justin Brownlee, Ginebra has a huge chance of winning the championship again.
Martin: TNT and Converge. No offense to NorthPort, but these teams at different times in the elims looked like the best of the rest. The Tropang Giga are champs until further notice, and the FiberXers with Jordan Heading as an extra playmaker look poised for bigger things.
2. Which one team can be the darkhorse to win the ‘chip?
John: Personal bias, but I’m rooting for Meralco. It’s going to be a battle against their strongest rival in the QF, the Gins, but I believe in them. As good as NorthPort has been in the elims, they’ll face Magnolia, a team that have found their footing on defense and are now looking very dangerous.
Bon: Converge. If Heading and [Justine] Baltazar deliver as they’re expected to and [Alec] Stockton remains steady, then it’s hard to stop these guys.
Brian: Converge. I like that there’s no local veteran player leading the team and they’re entirely figuring things out on their own and they’re succeeding. They’ve got international experienced rookies (Baltazar and Heading) and with the young core of Stockton, [Schonny] Winston, and [Justin] Arana, they can win it all.
Martin: Ginebra. It’s hard to fathom Ginebra being a darkhorse given their lineup, but the fact is they’ve looked largely up-and-down this conference. And Justin Brownlee is finally looking his age. It’ll take a vintage run from JB and the locals stepping up to pull Ginebra back towards title contention.
3. Who are the players to watch?
John: Not players per se, but a must watch matchup: the battle of independent teams, Rain or Shine and Converge
Bon: Stockton, [Calvin] Oftana, and [Jamie] Malonzo. These guys are more than capable of taking over.
Brian: Arvin Tolentino and Joshua Munzon. Making history for their franchise to be the no. 1 seed since entering the PBA, all eyes are on them if they can go deep in the playoffs. Considering that Arvin is leading the Best Player of the Conference race and Munzon finally shows that he can be a “star player.” they really are needed in order to make an even bigger legacy in the PBA this conference.
Martin: Scottie Thompson, Jordan Heading, and Paul Lee. Thompson will be critical this postseason. If he plays with aggression and looks for his shot, Ginebra might have a chance. Jordan Heading will be counted on by Converge to lead them to the next level. Lee has struggled this conference and is looking washed. But if he can turn back the clock, Magnolia might pull off a few surprises.
4. Who do you think will win the PBA Commissioner’s Cup title?
John: TNT, only because they’ll be matched up with a tired Eastern in the QF and they’re in a twice-to-beat advantage and whoever wins between Rain or Shine and Converge in the semis.
Bon: TNT. I think their depth and defense will be tough for any team to overcome.
Brian: Ginebra. They have proven that even with a very short rotation they can win games. Plus, they have championship pedigree players in their lineup. Also having RJ Abarrientos as a solid Sixth Man even as a rookie, they really have no excuses in not making to the Finals. Finishing in either quarters or semis would be a huge disappointment for the crowd favorites.
Martin: Much as I hate betting against Ginebra, I’d say TNT. I see them turning it up in the playoffs and outlasting Ginebra in an epic seven-game marathon in the finals.
