The PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals are just days away, with the NorthPort Batang Pier set to take on third-seeded Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and second seeded TNT Tropang Giga colliding with seventh-seeded Rain or Shine Elasto Painters. We already took a look at NorthPort vs. Ginebra; now we break down TNT vs. Rain or Shine.
1. Will TNT turn up the defense?
TNT hangs its hat on defense, at least in Season 49. The Tropang Giga were far and away the best defensive team in the PBA Governors’ Cup, and that defensive tenacity led them all the way to the championship. It will again be a deciding factor in this TNT vs. Rain or Shine series.
In this PBA Commissioner’s Cup, the Tropa have been good again defensively, but it seems they have regressed just a bit. From routinely holding down opponents to 90-ish points last conference, TNT is now giving up 96.1 points on 50.4% shooting overall. It’s a bit of a slippage and might be a cause for concern, especially with a red-hot Rain or Shine squad ready to pounce.
2. Will Rain or Shine continue its hot offense?
Rain or Shine is the polar opposite of TNT in that it will look to outgun you rather than drag you in the trenches. It has worked to a degree in Season 49 as the Elasto Painters have made the semis in both conferences (both times being a TNT vs. Rain or Shine matchup, too).
More importantly, it looks like the Rain or Shine offense is peaking at just the right time, with the Yeng Guiao-mentored squad averaging 114.6 points in their quarters tussle with the Converge FiberXers—including 114 and 112 in their two wins. But TNT is an elite defensive team, and Rain or Shine will need to crack that fortress if it wants to get past their former tormentors.
3. Is Adrian Nocum for real?
Nocum was Rain or Shine’s best player against Converge, averaging 22.3 points on a dizzying medley of kamikaze drives, pull-ups, and triples. He was particularly superb in Games 2 and 3, where he dropped 28 and 25, respectively, and led the Elasto Painters’ strong second half efforts in both games.
But again, TNT is a different beast defensively, and Nocum hasn’t been quite as prolific against the Tropa—particularly in the semis. But as the lone local who can consistently score and create his own shot, he will need to be at his absolute best if the Elasto Painters are to pull off an upset in this TNT vs. Rain or Shine matchup.
4. Can Calvin Oftana continue his hot shooting?
That TNT continues to be stellar despite its defense slipping is partly due to the hot shooting of Oftana, who is averaging 17.3 points this conference and shooting 44.4% from downtown. He is also among the league leaders in three-pointers made with 48 so far—or 3.7 makes a game.
Put simply, Oftana has emerged as TNT’s go-to local scorer, and the Tropa will need more of his hot shooting against a dangerous team like Rain or Shine. His outside sniping unlocks the TNT offense, opening up driving lanes for import Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Rey Nambatac. If Oftana continues to be in-form from downtown, the Tropang Giga are hard to beat.
5. Which veterans will step up in TNT vs. Rain or Shine?
Rain or Shine’s Beau Belga was huge in the team’s two wins against Converge, providing solid spot minutes and hitting open threes in the second half of both games. He and Gabe Norwood will need to step up to guide the young Elasto Painters against a champion team like TNT. Whether they’ll be able to do it is anybody’s guess.
On the other side, Jayson Castro and Kelly Williams have continued to be vital contributors to TNT’s superlative run in Season 49, and they will again be asked to play key roles against these young, deep, and dynamic Elasto Painters. Whether they can keep up remains to be seen and might decide the winner of TNT vs. Rain or Shine.
Game 1 of TNT vs. Rain or Shine is on Wednesday, February 26, at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. Game time is at 5:00 p.m.
