The PBA Commissioner’s Cup is winding down, and expect it to be as wild as it could be exciting. That’s because the top six teams are separated by just a mere game, potentially leading to blink-and-you-miss scenarios where one loss sends a team several rungs down.
Take a look:
A Six-Way Tie at the Top?
With TNT having two losses and Rain or Shine, Converge, Eastern, Meralco, and NorthPort each with three losses, there will likely be ties at the end of the eliminations. In fact, it’s even possible that the top six teams could end up in a six-way tie at 9-3.
Here’s how it could happen:
- Converge beats San Miguel (Jan. 24)
- NorthPort beats San Miguel (Jan. 21) and Blackwater (Jan. 25)
- Eastern beats Magnolia (Jan. 26) and NLEX (Jan. 29)
- Meralco beats Ginebra (Jan. 29) and Magnolia (Jan. 31)
- Rain or Shine beats Ginebra (Jan. 22), NLEX (Jan. 25), and TNT (Jan. 31)
- TNT beats Terrafirma (Jan. 22), Phoenix (Jan. 24), and San Miguel (Jan. 26) but loses to Rain or Shine (Jan. 31)
Of course, just because a six-way tie is possible doesn’t mean it’s probable. But the fact that it could happen speaks to how competitive the PBA Commissioner’s Cup has been.
Now, should the higher seeded teams play true to form and beat the lower seeded teams every time, the likely scenario would see TNT take the top spot at 10-2, followed by a four-way tie among Eastern, Meralco, NorthPort, and Converge at 9-3. Rain or Shine in this case will drop to sixth at 8-4.
A Four-way Tie at the Bottom?
So far, Converge, Meralco, Eastern, and NorthPort are the only teams assured of a quarterfinals berth. That’s because they’re up to seven wins already, and the best the bottom teams can do is get to six wins, max.
Here are the four teams with a leg up on getting to the next round:
Should the rest of the elimination round play out as in the scenario above, Ginebra will get the seventh seed at 6-6. San Miguel, NLEX, and Magnolia will end up tied at 4-8.
However, there’s also a possibility, however remote, that a four-way tie for the eight seed happens. That’s the scenario if San Miguel, Magnolia, and NLEX lose their remaining games and either of the Blackwater Bossing (2-8) and Phoenix Fuel Masters (3-7) sweep their last two games. Either way, seeds 1 thru 6 will be affected.
What Happens in Case of a Tie?
Here are the ways the PBA breaks ties:
- For seeds 1 thru 7, the winner-over-the other rule applies when two teams are tied with the same record. So, if TNT and Converge end up tied at 9-3, for example, TNT gets the higher seed because it won over Converge.
- For seeds 1 thru 7, the quotient system is used to break ties among three or more teams. So, if the six teams mentioned above do end up with identical 9-3 records, those with the higher quotients get the higher seeds.
- When two teams are tied for the eighth seed, they will play a knockout game.
- When three teams are tied for the eighth seed, the quotient system will be applied but with a twist: the team with the lowest quotient is eliminated, while the two teams with the higher quotients will figure in a knockout match.
What Do We Know for Sure?
At this point, we know that Converge, Meralco, Eastern, and NorthPort are through to the quarters. We also know that the Terrafirma Dyip are out of the running. We also know that Blackwater will be out of contention if they lose to Phoenix tonight.
Additionally, we know TNT has total control of where it’ll end up, as all it needs to do is win its four remaining games—something the Tropa can definitely do. And we know Ginebra can uncomplicate things by winning just one of their remaining two games (against Rain or Shine on Jan. 22 and Meralco on Jan. 29) to get to seven wins.
These, so far, are the only things we’re certain of. The rest is up in the air. And that makes the rest of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup elims appointment viewing as every matchup—save for Blackwater vs. Phoenix on Tuesday—will have a bearing on the standings.
