The 2024–25 PBA Philippine Cup playoffs will get underway later today at the PhilSports Arena with the NLEX Road Warriors and Rain or Shine Elasto Painters kicking off hostilities in the first game. Next will be the showdown between the Magnolia Hotshots and the Grand Slam-seeking TNT Tropang 5G in the main game.
So, with the action all but set, let’s take a deep-dive into this Wednesday’s two games:
(2) NLEX vs. (7) Rain or Shine
Key Stats
| NLEX | Rain or Shine | |
| Points per game | 97.7 | 106.3 |
| Opponent points per game | 91.8 | 104.7 |
| 2PT FG% | 3PT FG% | 54.2% | 36.1% | 52.7% | 32.4% |
| Rebounds per game | 42.5 | 45.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 12.3 | 14.4 |
| Assists per game | 22.8 | 22.5 |
Robert Bolick and his merry band of brothers are the feel-good story of this conference. In fact, they could’ve gotten the top seed if not for their slip-up against the NorthPort Batang Pier. Put simply, the NLEX formula—a lot of Berto, a little bit from everybody else, and just enough defense—has been working so far. But the playoffs are a different beast, and most of these Road Warriors will be charting unfamiliar territory.
Rain or Shine, in contrast, have been up and down this conference. Their performance so far has been a stark departure from the previous two conferences when they were among the top teams. But unlike the Road Warriors, the Elasto Painters are in somewhat familiar territory as they’ve made it to quarters five straight conferences and the semis three consecutive times. They’re primed to make it four in a row at NLEX’s expense.
What NLEX Need to Do: Don’t fight fire with fire and get lured into an up-tempo run-and-gun style. NLEX need to be deliberate, let Berto do his thing, and just take away Rain or Shine’s open looks.
What Rain or Shine Need to Do: Run, run, run! The fast-paced style has been the Elasto Painters’ MO this season, so there’s no sense to move away from it.
Who Wins? Rain or Shine sends this to a Game 2 winner-take-all.
(3) Magnolia vs. (6) TNT
Key Stats
| Magnolia | TNT | |
| Points per game | 102.5 | 93.0 |
| Opponent points per game | 93.3 | 88.0 |
| 2PT FG% | 3PT FG% | 53.4% | 29.0% | 50.8% | 36.2% |
| Rebounds per game | 42.5 | 42.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 13.7 | 12.6 |
| Assists per game | 21.2 | 18.8 |
It’s been a trying conference for the Grand Slam-seeking Tropa, but they’re back in what’s been their stomping grounds this season—the playoffs. Needless to say, it’s safe to expect that TNT will turn up the heat, even as they’re faced with a twice-to-win disadvantage.
Magnolia, on the other hand, averted early disaster—falling to the bottom four after a 6-0 start—by beating this same TNT squad in their last elims game. The win allowed the Hotshots to finish 2-3 in their last five outings and salvage the no. 4 slot. But it goes without saying Magnolia aren’t as sharp as they were to start the conference.
So, it’s looking like TNT are all set up to take the action to Magnolia—that is if they have a full complement of the players they have. Unfortunately, that’s not the case as Rey Nambatac wasn’t activated for the playoffs and Calvin Oftana is still being bothered by a sprained ankle. The Tropa’s defense, resilience, and championship pedigree will keep them close, but the Hotshots’ healthier lineup could be the difference-maker in the end.
What Magnolia Need to Do: The Hotshots will need to speed things up and get on the open floor; otherwise, they’d be potential prey for TNT’s stingy, well-connected defense.
What TNT Need to Do: The Tropa must do what’s gotten them two titles this season: Clamp down on D and make just enough shots.
Who Wins? Magnolia takes it—barely—and advances to the semis.
