(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Indiana Pacers
Regular Season Series: 2-0, Thunder
Key Insights
It’s the small-market NBA Finals, all right, but it could potentially be big for basketball.
The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are among the NBA’s so-called small market teams, and yet they’ve proven to be the best two teams in a season that was so wide open that at least eight teams could make a case as potential champs. But when the dust settled, only these two franchises will have the chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the next couple of weeks.
For the Thunder, making the Finals was a culmination of season-long domination after finishing the regular season with by far the best record in the league with an unheard-of point differential of +12.9. They then breezed past the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, got tested by the Denver Nuggets in the second round, and dominated the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Throughout, the Thunder have relied on their swarming, stifling defense and high-octane offense to throttle teams into submission.
In contrast, the Pacers are the team few outside Indiana thought would be in the NBA Finals. They were the fourth seed in the East and looked more like a pretender than a contender. But they’ve turned it up in the playoffs, unleashing an aggressive, in-your-face defense that perfectly complements an already prolific offense. Perhaps more critically, the Pacers have shown unmatched resiliency and grit, time and again showing the ability to come back from big leads and overcome any and all adversity.
Needless to say, the NBA Finals will be a war of attrition—OKC’s talent and depth against Indiana’s grit and tenacity.
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Players to Watch
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(29.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.6 SPG)
Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t the MVP for nothing, and his playoff numbers show it. He was particularly sensational in the WCF, putting up 31.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 1.8 steals, highlighted by a 40-point, 9 rebounds, 10-assist masterpiece in Game 4 at Minnesota. Expect the MVP to be the head of the table once more as OKC shoots for a title.
Jalen Williams
(20.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.6 SPG)
Williams has had an up-and-down postseason that saw him struggle in stretches against the Denver Nuggets. But he has since picked things up, hiking his numbers to 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.0 steals in the WCF. His 34-point explosion in Game 5 and a 26-point, 10-rebound tour de force in Game 2 show exactly how good Williams is—even in high-pressure situations.
Chet Holmgren
(16.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.8 SPG, 2.0 BPG)
Holmgren has been the Thunder’s anchor on defense, allowing everybody else to swarm all over the court, knowing Big Chet will protect the basket. He has been superb on offense, too, putting up 18.0 a game in the WCF after averaging just 14.1 in the second round against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. With no Jokic to command Holmgren’s full attention, he might be poised for an even more productive Finals.
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton
(18.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 9.8 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.7 BPG)
Haliburton may have missed out on the ECF MVP, but make no mistake about it: He is the Pacers’ heart and soul. His unflappable demeanor steadies his teammates, and his endgame shot-making has won Indiana at least three games, one in each round. He can produce big numbers, too, like when he dropped a 32-point, 12-rebound, 15-assist triple-double in Game 5 of the ECF and his 31-point, 11-assist masterpiece to start off that same series.
Pascal Siakam
(21.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 SPG)
The ECF MVP has been Indiana’s silent assassin, a legit 20-point-per-game scorer who just plays solid basketball and rarely makes mistakes. He was particularly prolific against the New York Knicks, whom Siakam torched for 24.8 points a game in the ECF on the strength of a trio of 30-point games—39 in Game 1, 30 in Game 4, and 31 in Game 6. He’ll doubtlessly be tested by OKC’s array of defense-first wings.
Aaron Nesmith
(14.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG)
Nesmith’s magnificent magnet ball from downtown in Game 1 of the ECF likely set the stage for Indiana’s inspired run to becoming the new Beasts of the East. In all, he shot 53.3% from the arc (27-for-50), and he’ll need to shoot just as well—if not better—against the Thunder’s swarming defense.
Matchups to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Aaron Nesmith/Andrew Nembhard
While an SGA-Haliburton matchup is no doubt compelling, it might be unlikely they’ll be matched up against each other. The Pacers, in particular, will likely be relying on Nesmith and Nembhard to guard the MVP, just as they did with Jalen Brunson in the ECF. Similarly, the Thunder will probably cross-match Haliburton with Alex Caruso and Lu Dort.
Pascal Siakam vs. Jalen Williams
Siakam vs. Williams is another compelling matchup—a couple of do-it-all no. 2s are finding their groove on offense. And they’ll likely be guarding each other every now and then, potentially setting up mano-a-mano opportunities between the two. But chances are, there’ll be plenty of cross-matching where Indiana matches up someone else to Williams, and OKC does the same to Siakam.
Chet Holmgren vs. Myles Turner
Turner and Holmgren will likely find themselves matched up most of the time, and it should be a fun one. To a degree, they’re play-alikes, shot-blocking bigs who can shoot from downtown but still finish down low—only Holmgren is much taller, and Turner is heftier.
DFS Tip
Betting big on the MVP would be a good idea because he’s shown he can produce big numbers at this level on a consistent basis. Haliburton can do the same, but he’s also shown that he’s the type of star that can give you a 30-10-10 stat line one game and a 5-7-6 stinker the next. So, tread carefully with Hali and hedge more on SGA.
In addition, OKC’s Williams might be ripe for a big series as Indiana will likely channel its best defenders on SGA, potentially leaving Williams a less-than-stellar defender whom he can exploit on offense. In contrast, Indiana’s Nesmith might find it harder to be productive game-to-game given the Thunder’s preponderance of long, athletic wings who can defend.
Further, Turner and Holmgren ought to be shoo-ins to any fantasy lineup as they’ll probably post good numbers, especially in the rebounding and shot blocking departments. Lastly, potential wild cards or low-cost, high-value picks include Bennedict Mathurin and Thomas Bryant for Indiana and Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso for OKC.
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