- Game 1: Thunder vs. Nuggets, 119:121
- Game 2: Thunder vs. Nuggets, 149:106
- Game 3: Thunder vs. Nuggets, May 10, 10:00 AM
Regular Season Series: Series tied 2-2
Playoff Series: series tied 1-1
Key Insights
OKC blitzed through the regular season with a 68-14 record and an incredible point differential of +12.9. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been superb all season long and is the favorite to be this season’s MVP as he has done everything for OKC. But it hasn’t been a one-man show as SGA has gotten plenty of help, notably from Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Chet Holmgren. The Thunder’s offense—120.5 points per game in the regular season—has been prolific no doubt, but it is their defense (107.6 points allowed) that has elevated the team to lofty heights.
Denver has had its ups and downs, and the late-season firing of Mike Malone and GM Calvin Booth underscores this topsy-turvy ride. But the Nuggets have their three-time MVP in Nikola Jokic, who quietly submitted one of the greatest seasons ever and is certainly an MVP candidate again. Thanks to The Joker’s singular brilliance, and timely contributions from Russell Westbrook, Aaron Gordon, and the rest of the roster, the Nuggets are still, improbably back in the Western Conference semifinals.
Incredibly, this series has started 1-1, with the Nuggets pulling out an improbable comeback win in Game 1 and the Thunder responding with a dominant Game 2 rout. If these two games are any indication, this series might be full of twists and turns.
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Players to Watch
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Like, yes, the presumptive MVP of this season is a player to watch. His stats—27.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 1.0 BPG—are down from his regular season numbers, but he has also played fewer minutes against an overmatched Memphis Grizzlies squad. With Denver likely to provide a greater challenge, expect SGA to play more and produce more.
Chet Holmgren
Hard to think that Holmgren was once upon a time in danger of missing the rest of the season after injuring his hip. Now, he has reassumed his place as OKC’s best big and is producing great numbers in this postseason—18.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 0.8 assist, 0.8 steal, and 2.8 blocks. How he responds to his matchup with the three-time MVP in Denver will be key in this series.
Lu Dort
SGA will likely be cross-matched with Christian Braun to save him on offense, and that means Dort will have the unenviable task of shadowing Jamal Murray, who almost always finds another gear when the stakes get higher. Needless to say, Dort’s defense will be crucial and so will his shooting as the Nuggets are likely to send multiple defenders at Gilgeous-Alexander.
Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic
Jokic averaged 24.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, 10.1 assists, 2.3 steals, and 0.9 block in Denver’s seven-game thriller against the LA Clippers. And some had the audacity to call his performance “average.” If that’s average, imagine what The Joker could do if he picks his game up a notch as the Nuggets take another step to returning to the NBA Finals.
Aaron Gordon
Gordon is probably the reason Denver survived the Clippers in the first place, as his game-winning tip dunk helped the Nuggets avoid a 3-1 hole. The former Orlando Magic is a smart, hard-nosed wing who just has a knack of making big plays, whether on offense or on defense.
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook has been a feast-or-famine type player lately. One game he’ll give you lots of everything; next game, he’ll give you next to nothing. But he is still a force of nature in ways good and bad, and his play might very well dictate whether or not the Nuggets can upset the Thunder.
Matchups to Watch
Nikola Jokic vs. Chet Holmgren
Jokic has already shown he can handle OKC’s bigs in Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. But both of the Thunder’s big men have also shown they’re not backing down. Denver will only go as far as Jokic can take them, and it will be up to Holmgren and Hartenstein to slow him down. Of the two, however, the former will have a bigger responsibility as he is usually the closer.
Jamal Murray vs. Lu Dort
Murray is one-half of Denver’s tremendous one-two punch (the other being Jokic), and the Nuggets are generally hard to beat when he is playing well. He did in Game 1 with a 21-point, 6-rebound, 6-assist performance but struggled in Game 2. It will be a tough series for the Canadian sharpshooter with Dort likely to spend more time guarding him.
DFS Tip
Starting SGA and Jokic are no-brainers. But do take a chance on a couple of role players: Aaron Gordon and Alex Caruso. Gordon has been having a great postseason, while Caruso is quietly doing damage on defense (stocks are important in fantasy!) Make sure, too, that you give Holmgren a slot as he’s almost sure to give at least two blocks and one steal a game. Finally, be strategic with Westbrook as there’s a chance he’d deliver a vintage all-around game in this series.
