Yes, five teams are still technically in the running for the last two UAAP Final Four slots, making the next three play dates appointment viewing, especially if you’re a fan of one of those five teams: UST Growling Tigers, La Salle Green Archers, Adamson Soaring Falcons, FEU Tamaraws, and Ateneo Blue Eagles. And, with so much intrigue left in the eliminations, we’ve decided to sort out the possibilities and outline what each team will need to do to catch the final bus to the Final Four of the UAAP Men’s Basketball Tournament:
UST Growling Tigers (7-5)
Remaining Games: NU (Nov. 23), FEU (Nov. 26)
What it needs to do: Beat NU and FEU
UST’s path to the Final Four is straightforward and theoretically the easiest. Beat NU and FEU and it’s on to the playoffs as the third seed. Beat either of the two and it’s still on to the Big Dance, but with the possibility of falling to No. 4. Wins over the Bulldogs and Tamaraws mean the Growling Tigers will finish at 9-5 and out of the reach of their closest pursuer in La Salle. Going 1-1 means UST will be at 8-6, which could get them into a tie with the Green Archers.
However, based on the results of the first round, the likeliest outcome is UST beating FEU but losing to NU.
La Salle Green Archers (6-6)
Remaining Games: UP (Nov. 22), ADMU (Nov. 26)
What it needs to do: Beat UP and ADMU
Like UST, La Salle has a straightforward path to the Final Four: Beat both UP and Ateneo. In such case, the Green Archers will be at 8-6 and out of the reach of Ateneo, Adamson, and FEU as they can at best get to seven wins only. A win and a loss would get La Salle to 7-7 and in a potential logjam with any two of the Blue Eagles, Tamaraws, and Soaring Falcons.
If the first round is any indication, it’s looking likely that the Green Archers might win one and lose one, although a clean sweep isn’t that far-fetched.
Adamson Soaring Falcons (6-7)
Remaining Game: ADMU (Nov. 23)
What it needs to do: Beat ADMU
Adamson is in a must-win situation against Ateneo if it wants a chance to backdoor its way to the Final Four. Even then, the Soaring Falcons’ fate isn’t solely in their hands as they also need either La Salle or UST (or both) to finish at 7-7.
But that might be looking a little too far ahead as Adamson will need to shoot down the Blue Eagles first—something it couldn’t do in the first round.
FEU Tamaraws (5-7)
Remaining Games: UE (Nov. 22), UST (Nov. 26)
What it needs to do: Beat UE and UST
Like the Soaring Falcons, the Tamaraws’ Final Four fate isn’t solely in their hands. But before they can worry about that, they first need to beat both UE and UST to finish at 7-7. Then, they’ll have to hope and pray that other teams also fall to 7-7 for a possible playoff or for the head-to-head records to be at play.
The Tamaraws could probably handle UE again, but the big test would be the Growling Tigers, who appear to be rediscovering their early season form.
Ateneo Blue Eagles (5-7)
Remaining Games: DLSU (Nov. 23), ADU (Nov. 26)
What it needs to do: Beat DLSU and ADU
Ateneo is another team that needs everything to go right. Firstly, the Blue Eagles need to beat both La Salle and Adamson to finish the eliminations. Then, like the Soaring Falcons, they need other teams to finish at 7-7 for a chance to backdoor their way to the Final Four.
Recent form suggests the Blue Eagles might not have it in them to go 2-0 against La Salle and Adamson.
Five-Way Tie for Last to Final Four Slots? It’s Possible!
While improbably, there’s actually a chance all five teams end up with identical 7-7 records, thus forcing a five-way tie for the last two Final Four spots. That improbable scenario will happen if:
- UST losses its remaining two games, pulling it down to 7-7.
- FEU sweeps its last two games to leapfrog to 7-7.
- Adamson beats Ateneo to finish at 7-7.
- Ateneo sweeps La Salle and UP.
- La Salle overcomes UP.
In such a scenario, FEU will get rewarded with the third seed for getting a leg up in the tiebreak system. The other four teams, meanwhile, will battle it out for the fourth and final spot, with La Salle and Adamson fighting it out first. The winner will then face Ateneo for the right to face UST and complete the Final Four cast.
Yes, we know that scenario borders on the improbable. But it’s not impossible. So, make sure you tune in to UAAP men’s basketball! It’s going to be a wild finish.
If Adamson beats Ateneo then Ateneo will be out with 8 losses. 5 way tie is not possible.