Both the TNT Tropang 5G and San Miguel Beermen will be gunning for a 3-2 lead in the PBA Philippine Cup Finals later today at the Ynares Center in Antipolo. And if the first four games are any indication, the team that starts strong in Game 5 will probably get on the proverbial hill in the end.
Strong Start the Barometer in the PBA Philippine Cup Finals
In the first four games of these PBA Philippine Cup Finals, the team that has started strong has won each time. A strong start in this case is an explosive one, where the eventual winning team builds an early double-digit lead and extends it to 15 or more.
TNT started this trend in Game 1, when they zoomed to a 19-point first-half lead on the shoulders of some hot shooting and plenty of swarming defense. San Miguel eventually rallied in the second half and even got to within 92-91, only to fall short in the end.
The Beermen flipped the script in Game 2 by going off in the first quarter and building a 30-18 advantage. They extended it to as much as 57-33 by the end of the half. TNT rallied somewhat in the third, but San Miguel doused cold water on every comeback attempt.
It was the same story for the Beermen in Game 3, as they built a 33-19 first-quarter lead, only for the Tropa to wipe it all out in the second quarter. But San Miguel recovered and ultimately stole the victory. Then, in Game 4, the Tropang 5G had a dream start and carried the momentum until the final buzzer.
How Important Is Winning Game 5?
The short answer to that question is very important. There have been 10 PBA Finals this decade, and in seven of those, the winner of Game 5 went on to win the championship. Six of those seven times ended in Game 6.
San Miguel and TNT, in particular, have each won a title after winning Game 5—in the 2023-24 Commissioner’s Cup and the 2025 Philippine Cup for the Beermen, and in the 2023 and 2024 Governors’ Cup for TNT.
Curiously, the two times a Game 5 winner lost the title both involved TNT. One was when the Tropa stormed back from a 2-3 deficit to beat Barangay Ginebra San Miguel for the 2025 Commissioner’s Cup title. The other was when the Tropang 5G squandered a 3-2 advantage to San Miguel in the 2022 PBA Philippine Cup Finals.
Needless to say, Game 5 will be critical. It tips off at 7:30 p.m as the PBA Philippine Cup Finals continue.
