We’re already midway through the season and the NBA’s Most Valuable Player frontrunner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, might just win it this year, especially with how the OKC Thunder is performing. However, an advanced metric stat shows Nikola Jokic is the clear MVP, and SGA doesn’t even come close.
Shai has been the frontrunner for the MVP award this season, while Jokic has also been the clear second. However, fans believe it should be Jokic at 1 because of this advanced metric stat that shows have impactful the Serbian superstar is.
Jokic Leading Every MVP Candidate or League Superstar in Terms of On-Off Swings
A player’s impact on his team is not just based on ridiculous stats, flashy highlights, and contributions to winning. A lot of times, their impact, whether positive or not, can be truly measured using one technique: the On-Off Team Net Rating.
In the table below, you can see the 12 most notable On-Off Net Rating swings this season.
| PLAYER | ON COURT RTG | OFF COURT RTG | SWING (DIFFERENCE) |
| Nikola Jokic | +12.3 | -8.2 | 20.5 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +18.4 | +0.4 | 18.0 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +5.2 | -3.1 | 8.8 |
| Jayson Tatum | +9.2 | +8.2 | 1.0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +2.5 | -7.9 | 10.4 |
| LeBron James | -1.9 | +4.2 | -2.3 |
| Steph Curry | +3.0 | -2.9 | 5.9 |
| Kevin Durant | +0.5 | -5.2 | 5.7 |
| Anthony Edwards | +4.3 | +0.1 | 4.2 |
| Jalen Brunson | +4.6 | +9.4 | -4.8 |
| Donovan Mitchell | +13.1 | +5.5 | 7.6 |
| James Harden | +5.2 | -0.3 | 5.5 |
*On Court: The Team’s Net Rating when that player is present on the court
*Off Court: The Team’s Net Rating while sitting on the bench
Even though Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is clearly the best when it comes to improving his team when he steps on the court, one thing to consider as well is how much the net rating drops when he is either benched or does not play.
The swing with Shai on OKC is still huge compared to other stars on the list, but the name with the highest deficit is, of course, Nikola Jokic.
When Joker plays, the Denver Nuggets look like a championship contender. But the moment he steps out, the whole team crumbles, and literally turns into one of the worst offensive teams in the league.
Jokic’ impact, as per measured by the On-Off swing, tells you a lot of things:
- Jokic isn’t just the most valuable player in his team. He’s already the most valuable player in the league if we’re only looking at how the Nuggets go nuts without him.
- Not only is he the best player in the world right now, but he’s also having the best season in his career.
In hindsight, Jokic should be MVP. Many would argue that he isn’t leading Denver to the top seed in the West, but many fans and pundits fail to realize that he doesn’t have another All-star in his team.
Jokic is really putting up insane numbers, including a 30-point triple-double regular season average. Yet, he’s still number two in MVP rankings despite having his best season so far.
Is this what we call “voter’s fatigue”? Or is the NBA just keen on not giving him his 4th MVP trophy?
