The PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals promise to be fun and fierce, with both pairings featuring compelling storylines and players to watch. Take the matchup between Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters, for instance. It’s a battle between two multititled coaches and two imports with contrasting styles and temperaments. It also pits two vastly different coaching philosophies.
However, as we’ve pointed out before, the numbers don’t lie. Stats often tell a big part of the story in terms of how a game or series could potentially play out. Here are the statistical battles that could prove game-changing:
84.8 to 72.3
By now, it’s clear what Rain or Shine wants to do: speed things up. A direct result of this run-and-gun philosophy is the Elasto Painters leading the league in pace—the stat that estimates the number of possessions a team uses per 48 minutes. Rain or Shine tops the league with 84.8 possessions per 48 minutes, while Ginebra is last at just 72.3.
With a slightly older core and a shorter rotation, expect Tim Cone to slow the pace down to about the 70–75 range. Otherwise, Rain or Shine’s depth, youth, and conditioning could be decisive. Put simply, more possessions favor Yeng Guiao’s wards, while fewer possessions favor the more deliberate Gin Kings.
38.7% to 33.1%
Rain or Shine and Ginebra are No. 1 and 2 in three-pointers made per game, with the Elasto Painters averaging 13.2 and Ginebra drilling 13.1. Rain or Shine’s reliance on the three is by design, with Guiao encouraging his shooters to let it fly. For Ginebra, it’s more surprising given Cone’s admitted reluctance toward heavy three-point shooting.
Expect the trey ball to be a major weapon for both teams in the semis. But what could tilt the balance is shooting efficiency. Ginebra is second only to the Magnolia Hotshots in three-point percentage, hitting 38.7% from deep. In contrast, Rain or Shine ranks sixth at 33.1%. Given their volume shooting, the team that shoots better from long range will likely have the edge.
57.5 to 46.9
Another reason Rain or Shine usually wins the possession battle is rebounding. Through the quarterfinals, the Elasto Painters are the league’s top rebounding team at 57.5 per game—including a conference-best 16.5 offensive boards. Ginebra, meanwhile, is 11th in rebounding at 46.9 and ninth in offensive rebounding at 13.5.
Don’t be surprised if Rain or Shine crashes the boards even harder against an older Ginebra squad, especially with Japeth Aguilar still working his way back into game conditioning and Justin Brownlee’s hamstring a lingering concern. Relentless offensive rebounding could be another way Rain or Shine wears Ginebra down.
103.3 to 111.9
Rain or Shine is a surprisingly strong defensive team when pace is factored in. The Elasto Painters’ defensive rating of 103.3—tops in the league—proves it. Ginebra, meanwhile, ranks ninth, surrendering 111.9 points per 100 possessions.
This stark difference could be Rain or Shine’s trump card, especially if they can dictate the pace. It means that if the Elasto Painters play at their preferred tempo, they still have the defensive acumen to contain Ginebra, whereas the crowd darlings will likely struggle in the same scenario. That’s why the possession battle is so crucial in this series.
PBA Commissioner’s Cup Semis: (2) Ginebra vs. (3) Rain or Shine
Rain or Shine and Ginebra will begin their best-of-seven semis showdown on Wednesday at the Ynares Center in Antipolo. Tip off is scheduled at 7:30 p.m.
