Group I features one of the tournament’s strongest title contenders in France, but the battle behind them could become one of the most competitive races in the World Cup. While Les Bleus are widely expected to top the group, both Senegal and Norway possess enough quality to challenge for a place in the knockout stage.
Senegal enters as one of Africa’s most established football powers, while Norway arrives with one of the world’s most feared strikers in Erling Haaland. Iraq, meanwhile, returns to the World Cup after a long absence and will look to play the role of spoiler.
France
France enters the tournament as one of the favorites to lift the trophy and the strongest team in Group I. Despite some questions about midfield depth compared to previous generations, Les Bleus remain loaded with elite talent across the pitch.
Led by Kylian Mbappé, France continues to thrive in transition, combining pace, technical quality, and tournament experience. With one of the deepest squads in the competition, anything less than first place in the group would be considered a surprise.
FIFA World Ranking: 3rd
ESPN Prediction: 1939 Elo Rating (3rd), 95% chance of advancing
Senegal
Senegal remains one of Africa’s most complete national teams and enters the tournament with legitimate ambitions of reaching the knockout stage. Built around athleticism, defensive strength, and direct attacking play, the Lions of Teranga have consistently shown they can compete with top opposition.
Veteran defender Kalidou Koulibaly continues to anchor the back line, while a squad filled with European-based talent provides balance throughout the pitch. ESPN’s model gives Senegal an 83% chance of advancing, making them the slight favorite in the battle for second place.
FIFA World Ranking: 15th
ESPN Prediction: 1727 Elo Rating (26th), 83% chance of advancing
Norway
Norway enters Group I carrying one of the tournament’s most intriguing storylines. Led by Erling Haaland, the Norwegians finally return to the World Cup with a striker capable of deciding matches on his own.
Norway’s attack remains dangerous thanks to Haaland’s finishing ability, physical presence, and aerial threat. However, questions remain about the team’s overall balance. Compared to France and Senegal, Norway lacks the same depth in midfield and defense, placing even greater importance on Haaland’s ability to deliver in key moments.
FIFA World Ranking: 31st
ESPN Prediction: 1746 Elo Rating (23rd), 72% chance of advancing
Iraq
Iraq returns to the World Cup for the first time in four decades after an impressive qualification campaign. Qualification may be a difficult task, but the Iraqis could still influence the race for second place by taking points off one of the group’s contenders.
FIFA World Ranking: 57th
ESPN Prediction: 1653 Elo Rating (34th), 20% chance of advancing
Who Advances?
France remains the clear favorite to win the group, but the race for second place could become one of the tournament’s most compelling battles. Senegal enters with a slight edge according to both FIFA rankings and ESPN’s projections, yet Norway possesses a game-changing weapon in Erling Haaland.
The pivotal match may be Senegal versus Norway. The winner would take a major step toward automatic qualification, while the loser could find itself relying on other results. Even if Norway falls short of the top two, it could still emerge as one of the strongest third-placed teams in the tournament.
Beyond the qualification race, France versus Norway could be one of the most anticipated matches of the group stage, featuring a World Cup showdown between Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland.
Projected Finish
- France
- Senegal
- Norway
- Iraq
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