Let’s be honest about what is coming to Gilas Pilipinas on July 3 and 6.
Gilas Pilipinas face New Zealand and Australia in the third and final window of the FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers first round—and they are doing so without Kai Sotto, who is chasing NBA Summer League opportunities, and without Quentin Millora-Brown, who is recovering from back surgery. Those are arguably the two best Filipino big men in the pool. Both are unavailable. Both might be irreplaceable.
And that is bad news for Gilas Pilipinas. Very bad news.
New Zealand’s Backcourt Is a Problem
Put simply, these Tall Blacks could be the toughest squad Gilas will face yet. Head coach Judd Flavell has assembled a roster built around NBL-proven talent with size and skill, and the backcourt alone is enough to give Gilas nightmares.
Headlining the Tall Blacks are New Zealand Breakers’ Taylor Britt, Carlin Davison, Sam Mennenga, and Reuben Te Rangi, alongside Melbourne United’s Shea Ili and Sam Waardenburg. NBL26 standouts Mojave Cairns, Taine Murray, Tohi Smith-Milner, and Tai Webster are also in the lineup, along with Jordan Ngatai and Sam Timmins.
The backcourt quartet of Britt, Ili, Murray, and Webster bring size, speed, and the kind of handle and shot-making that exposed Gilas Pilipinas in the previous window. The frontcourt of Mennenga, Smith-Milner, Waardenburg, and Timmins give New Zealand multiple players 6-foot-9 and up who are athletic and mobile—and certainly capable of protecting the rim and switching on the perimeter.
Needless to say, Justin Brownlee and company will need nothing short of a Herculean effort to bridge the matchup problems the Tall Blacks will be posing up and down the roster.
Australia Is a Different Beast Entirely
If New Zealand is a bad matchup, Australia is downright a nightmare.
Six-time NBL MVP Bryce Cotton headlines the Boomers’ roster for this window, joined by a strong contingent that includes Keanu Pinder, Ben Henshall, and Elijah Pepper, alongside college standout Alex Condon and Illawarra Hawks wing Wani Swaka Lo Buluk. Cotton—finally making his long-anticipated appearance for the Boomers—is one of the best guards in the world outside the NBA. He is a mismatch against virtually any defender Gilas Pilipinas can put on him. Remember, Pepper ran circles around the Gilas defense in the second window. Cotton could destroy it outright.
Australia are undefeated in this qualifying campaign, and they have no lineup holes. Their frontcourt rotation of Sam Froling, Nick Kay, Keanu Pinder, and Condon gives them length, athleticism, and shooting range at multiple positions. Mitch Creek returns to add wing versatility and defensive pressure. Jaylin Galloway, Tanner Krebs, and Tom Wilson add depth at the guard spot.
The Boomers have beaten Gilas Pilipinas twice this year, both by big margins. They are bringing in even more talent this time around. Do the math.
The Gilas Pilipinas Interior Problem Is Existential
Both New Zealand and Australia have size at every position, but their frontlines are particularly impressive. The Boomers’ frontcourt, in particular, is the kind of unit that punishes undersized lineups with post mismatches, offensive rebounds, and contested interior finishes that no amount of heart and hustle fully compensates for.
Sotto at his best would at least give Gilas Pilipinas a body capable of altering shots and holding ground in the post. Millora-Brown, when healthy, provides length and a vertical threat that changes what defenses have to account for. Unfortunately, they are not playing come July.
AJ Edu will try his best. June Mar Fajardo will try to turn back the clock. Mike Phillips, Justine Baltazar, and Troy Rosario will show grit. All that might not be enough if we are being honest.
Justin Brownlee Cannot Be Superman Every Night
Gilas Pilipinas, of course, have Justin Brownlee, who has made a career out of delivering hoops magic in and for the Philippines. One magical performance could be all it takes for the national team to get at least one win—realistically against the Tall Blacks, whom Gilas have played tough in the Tim Cone era.
Now, the bad news: Australia’s wings and New Zealand’s athletic forwards are built precisely to make Brownlee’s job harder. That length and athleticism create physical contests that a 34-year-old, however talented, cannot resolve on every possession, let alone an entire game.
In fact, New Zealand held Brownlee to four points in their 69-66 win, and his poor showing proved to be the difference between Gilas winning and losing that contest. He will be facing the same aggressive, in-your-face defense he faced back in February, and how he responds could determine if the nationals can win at least one game on the road.
Brace Yourselves
Without Sotto and Millora-Brown, this window has almost become a knives-to-a-gunfight situation. Brownlee and the Gilas Pilipinas guards will need to be extraordinary. Edu and the rest of the frontcourt will need to overperform their limitations. And Gilas will need things to go right at the margins.
Is all that possible? Maybe. But not likely. Philippine basketball fans should watch 3 July and 6 July with eyes wide open—and without illusions of going 2-0 in hostile territory.
Cone himself said it best: get at least one win.
