The PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals kick off on Wednesday with the Meralco Bolts taking on the TNT Tropang 5G. If this battle seems familiar, it’s because it is—the same two teams clashed in the semifinals of the last PBA Philippine Cup, with the Tropa prevailing in five games.

Now, the Bolts and Tropa are set for a rematch, and this series might be even better than the last. But what do the numbers tell us about this showdown? Let’s take a look:

8.0 to 7.8

For the past few conferences, TNT has been one of the PBA’s most prolific three-point shooting teams, routinely making over 10 a game and capable of dropping 18, 19, or even 20. This conference, however, the Tropa’s shooters have gone unusually quiet, averaging only 7.8 triples per game—12th in the league, just slightly better than Meralco’s 8.0.

The best guess here is that TNT’s numbers are an aberration. This team is too good from deep to remain near the bottom. And if their two quarterfinal wins are any indication, they may be turning a corner, hitting eight threes in the first game and 10 more in the second. That could spell trouble for Meralco.

80.7 to 64.9

All conference long, Chot Reyes has lamented TNT’s reliance on Bol Bol and the lack of production from his locals. In the elimination round, TNT’s locals accounted for just 64.9 of the team’s 102.5 scoring average, with Bol contributing 37.6. In contrast, Meralco’s locals averaged 80.7 points, with Marvin Jones adding 22.4 to complete the Bolts’ 103.1 points per game.

However, TNT’s locals appear to be finding their rhythm. After scoring 62 points in their 96-93 win, Calvin Oftana and company erupted for 83 in their 118-112 victory to clinch a semis spot. If this trend continues, Meralco’s defense will have its hands full.

99.9 to 96.7

Building on that point, Meralco remains one of the best defensive teams this conference, surrendering only 96.7 points per game. That shouldn’t surprise anyone—the Bolts have long been a defense-first squad. TNT, meanwhile, gives up 99.9 points per game, which is consistent with their style.

Both defenses will be tested in the semis, though Meralco faces the bigger challenge of containing the 7-foot-3 Bol, currently the league’s leading scorer at 37.6 per game. Complicating matters is the resurgence of Oftana, RR Pogoy, and Jayson Castro, which will put added pressure on CJ Cansino, Chris Newsome, and Jones to match TNT’s firepower while challenging their defense.

46.1% to 45.6%

Despite their defensive reputations, both Meralco and TNT are efficient shooting teams. Meralco ranks third at 46.1%, while TNT is fourth at 45.6%. This makes for an intriguing matchup, as both teams will need to defend well against opponents who can score efficiently.

The concern for Meralco is their tendency to go ice-cold. While they shoot well overall, the Bolts sometimes endure long stretches without scoring. If that happens in this series, TNT could exploit it. Meralco must avoid those droughts to stay competitive.

PBA Commissioner’s Cup Semis: (4) Meralco vs. (8) TNT

Meralco and TNT will begin their best-of-seven semifinal showdown on Wednesday at the Ynares Center in Antipolo. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:15 p.m.