The final two play dates—today and tomorrow—of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup are about to go down, and three of the four will have a bearing on the final seedings. Later tonight, one of those games—Phoenix Fuel Masters vs. San Miguel Beermen—will take place. The tournament’s final double-header has seeding repercussions as well, as the Magnolia Hotshots take on the Meralco Bolts on Sunday, followed by the TNT Tropang 5G going up against Barangay Ginebra San Miguel.
Curiously, these three games will also have an impact on who will wind up No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 among Ginebra, the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters, and the Meralco Bolts.
So, without further ado, let’s break down the scenarios at play in the penultimate and final play dates of the Commissioner’s Cup:
Scenario 1: Phoenix, TNT, Magnolia All Win
In this case, Phoenix, TNT, and Magnolia will all move up to 7-5, with San Miguel dropping to 6-6. The Hotshots move up to No. 5 in this scenario with a superior quotient (1.084), followed by Phoenix at No. 6 (1.031), and TNT at No. 7 (1.000). San Miguel ends up at No. 8 to round out the final eight of the Commissioner’s Cup .
This scenario will also affect the top four seedings, with Ginebra clinching No. 2, followed by Rain or Shine at No. 3, and Meralco at No. 4.
Scenario 2: Phoenix Wins, TNT and Magnolia Lose
This scenario will result in Phoenix going up to 7-5, with TNT, Magnolia, and San Miguel dropping to a three-team tie at 6-6. In this case, Phoenix finishes at No. 5, Magnolia at No. 6, TNT at No. 7, and San Miguel at No. 8 with the lowest quotient (0.811).
Additionally, this scenario will drop Ginebra to No. 4 with an 8-4 record, with Rain or Shine finishing at No. 2 over No. 3 Meralco by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule.
Scenario 3: Phoenix Loses, TNT and Magnolia Win
A Phoenix loss coupled with TNT and Magnolia wins will drop the Fuel Masters to 6-6 and the eighth seed in this Commissioner’s Cup. This scenario will see Magnolia rise to No. 5 with the superior quotient, with TNT at No. 6 and San Miguel at No. 7.
In the upper half, Rain or Shine clinches No. 2 at 9-3, with Meralco and Ginebra tied at 8-4. Meralco gets No. 3 here because they thrashed Ginebra in their lone meeting in this Commissioner’s Cup.
Scenario 4: Phoenix Loses, TNT Wins, Magnolia Loses
Here, two teams—San Miguel and TNT—will end up at 7-5, with Magnolia and Phoenix dropping to 6-6. TNT rises to No. 5 since it beat San Miguel, who will clinch No. 6. Phoenix then gets No. 7 since it overcame Magnolia earlier in the tournament.
This scenario also means Rain or Shine will be No. 2; Meralco, No. 3; and Ginebra, No. 4.
Scenario 5: Phoenix Loses, TNT Loses, Magnolia Wins
In this scenario, San Miguel and Magnolia will be tied at 7-5, with the latter getting the fifth seed and the former relegated to the sixth seed due to the winner-over-the-other rule. TNT and Phoenix will be tied at 6-6, but Phoenix will clinch the seventh seed because of the same rule.
When these happen, Ginebra will clinch the second seed in the Commissioner’s Cup, with Rain or Shine getting the third, and Meralco settling for the fourth.
PBA Commissioner’s Cup Final Play Dates of the Elims
Saturday, May 9, 2026 | Ynares Center Antipolo
Blackwater Bossing vs. Converge FiberXers (5:15 p.m.)
Phoenix Fuel Masters vs. San Miguel Beermen (7:30 p.m.)
Sunday, May 10, 2026 | Mall of Asia Arena
Magnolia Hotshots vs. Meralco Bolts (5:15 p.m.)
Barangay Ginebra San Miguel vs. TNT Tropang 5G (7:30 p.m.)
