While numbers rarely lie, some stats can also be aberrations—such as when a team gets blazing hot from long distance or when a team uncharacteristically plays with little effort. This is the caveat by which we’ll break down the relevant numbers in the Magnolia Hotshots’ swashbuckling 95-89 win over the Meralco Bolts that set up their winner-take-all showdown on Saturday.
So, let’s take a deep dive into what’s real and what’s not in that game, and how it could impact the Meralco vs. Magnolia do-or-die matchup:
52.2 to 39.7: NOT REAL
On Wednesday, Meralco shot an atrocious 39.7% overall and a ghastly 15.8% from the arc. In contrast, Magnolia shot 52.2% and was a blistering 66.7% from distance. That chasm in shooting percentage probably isn’t a clear reflection of the teams’ true shooting abilities, as they were actually closer through the first 12 games of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup (48.8% for Magnolia, 46.2% for Meralco). That being said, don’t be surprised if these numbers even out more closely on Saturday.
17 to 12: REAL
Magnolia could have run away with the win on Wednesday, but turnovers stalled the Hotshots at various points in the game. In all, they turned the ball over 17 times compared to the 12 committed by Meralco. The Bolts turned this difference into a 21-10 advantage in turnover points.
If the first 12 games of the elimination round were any indication, these numbers are real. Magnolia has struggled to protect the ball, averaging 15.4 turnovers in the eliminations. Meralco, on the other hand, was the best in the league in this respect, committing just 11 turnovers over the same span. Unless Magnolia takes better care of the ball, expect them to cough it up a few times again in Game 2.
21 to 7: REAL
Magnolia’s execution was on point for stretches on Wednesday, resulting in the Hotshots recording 21 assists. Meralco, meanwhile, managed only 7. These numbers are real given the teams’ previous performances, as Magnolia ranked second in the PBA in assists per game during the eliminations with 24.8. The Bolts, on the other hand, were eighth at 20.6 per game. Therefore, there’s a good chance the assist numbers will favor the Hotshots again on Saturday.
17 to 11: REAL
Both teams were in the bottom third in rebounding during the eliminations, with Magnolia grabbing a league-worst 45.9 rebounds per game. Meralco did slightly better with 47.4 boards per outing. The same holds true in offensive rebounding, with the Hotshots averaging only 10.8 offensive boards compared to 12.9 for the Bolts.
These numbers aren’t among the league’s best, but head-to-head, Meralco has the advantage—mostly because they have more bigs and play a more physical style. Expect the Bolts to win the battle of the boards on Saturday again, and to secure a few offensive rebounds to boot.
(4) Meralco vs. (5) Magnolia
Meralco and Magnolia will face off again on Saturday at the Ynares Center in Antipolo, with the winner advancing to the PBA Commissioner’s Cup semis. Game time is set for 5:15 p.m.
