The Rain or Shine Elasto Painters, who at one point were running away with the best record in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup, have since tapered off, going 5-3 in their last eight games. Because of that, they will be facing the mighty San Miguel Beermen, who struggled early in the conference but have since been playing high-level hoops with Bennie Boatwright.
So, what do the stats tell us about this quarterfinals pairing? See for yourself:
112.0 to 106.5
This showdown is a matchup of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup’s top scoring teams, with Rain or Shine averaging 112.0 to lead all teams in that department. San Miguel is next, although its 106.5 average is nearly six points fewer than Rain or Shine’s.
By this metric, fans can expect a high-scoring game between these two teams—similar to the 116-112 scoreline in the Elasto Painters’ win over the Beermen back in April.
40.5 to 40.4
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Rain or Shine and San Miguel are top two as well in field goals made on average. Here, the Beermen are No. 1 with 40.5 makes a game, followed very closely by the Elasto Painters at 40.4.
Again, this means expect bucket after bucket after bucket when these two teams go at it with a semis seat on the line. Tangential to this statistical battle is the three-pointers made, as Rain or Shine is second in the league in triples at 12.7 a game. San Miguel is 11th at 7.8. But that doesn’t mean the Beermen don’t have long-ball snipers.
111.5 to 109.7
Not convinced this Rain or Shine versus San Miguel matchup is about offense? These two teams are fifth and sixth in offensive rating, proving again they boast prolific offenses. The Beermen’s offense is slightly more potent per 100 possessions as they average 111.5 points (fifth in the league). Rain or Shine’s is slightly lower at 109.7 points per 100 possessions (sixth).
What this means is that San Miguel maximizes its possessions more in terms of scoring, averaging 1.12 points per possession compared to Rain or Shine’s 1.10.
102.9 to 111.2
Surprisingly, though, Rain or Shine has proven to be a solid defensive team as it boasts a league-best 102.9 defensive rating—meaning the Elasto Painters surrender just 1.03 points per possession. In contrast, San Miguel is only eighth in the league in this metric with a rating of 111.2, or 1.11 points per possession.
This could tilt the scales in favor of the Elasto Painters, who will have to at least limit the Beermen’s explosive offense if they are to avoid the complication of getting into a winner-take-all with the PBA’s winningest franchise. The stats say they can.
The Quarterfinals: (3) Rain or Shine vs. (6) San Miguel
Rain or Shine and San Miguel will kick off Friday’s quarterfinals double-header at the Ynares Center in Antipolo. Tip-off will be at 5:15 p.m.
